Defense pre-planning is focused on the analysis of potential threat scenarios to assess the effectiveness of a missile defense laydown. It is a computationally intensive problem that must be able to quickly assess many possible threat scenarios in order to optimally locate basings for fixed assets and regions of operation for mobile assets, while accounting for constraints on possible locations and operating regions. The analysis examines the performance and effectiveness of individual assets, and performance of the system as a whole.
Problem
Defense pre-planning is a challenging problem that combines several analyses of threat scenarios, sensor and weapon performance, and system performance.
- Threat analysis
- Trajectory prediction and propagation
- Sensor analysis
- Weapon analysis
- System performance and breakdown
- Computational framework
Solution
The solutions to the defense pre-planning problem require several complex and interacting algorithmic tools to develop an effective, integrated solution. TechFinity has developed advanced algorithmic solutions to address some of these key problem areas, including the following:
- Probabilistic Threat Tubes
- Sensor / Weapon Performance Analysis
- Sensor Analysis
- Weapon Analysis
- Defensive Breakdown Analysis
Benefits
The defense pre-planning tool provides the following key benefits:
- Computationally efficient mechanism for representing the uncertainty of launch and impact
- points as a visual threat tube
- Advanced sensor and weapon performance analysis for each threat tube
- System breakdown analysis to assess overall system capability and performance
Probabilistic Threat Tubes
The probabilistic threat tubes are an analysis innovation developed by TechFinity to significantly reduce the computational complexity and time required to generate a defensive laydown analysis. The purpose of the threat tube is to provide a mechanism for representing the uncertainty of the threat launch location and its intended target. Normally a defense planning tool would attempt to address these uncertainties by modeling hundreds or even thousands of individual threat trajectories, and perform sensor and weapon analyses on each trajectory—a significant effort computationally both in terms of available processing resources and the time required to complete an analysis of all threats for a single defensive laydown.
TechFinity’s threat tubes use advanced probabilistic techniques and a fast computational method to generate a series of threat tubes that require only 11 individual trajectories per tube to represent all possible trajectories within volume of the threat tube connecting defined launch and impact region for a given class of trajectory (e.g. lofted or depressed). The launch and impact regions can be scaled as needed to provide the necessary resolution in analysis. These methods have the potential to reduce days of extensive analysis into a few hours by configuring the system to perform an automated optimization of defensive laydowns.
Sensor / Weapon Performance Analysis
Several sensor and weapon performance analysis tools are provided with the defense pre-planning tool set, which are used to assess the effectiveness of a given defensive laydown.
Sensor Analysis
The sensor analysis tools provide several key performance measures that are critical to assessing the effectiveness of sensor resources in a given threat scenario. These include:
- Time in sensor field of view on a per threat basis
- Sensor loading for the given threat scenario/time in field of view
- Weighted sensor loading based on predicted threat values/potential damage
Weapon Analysis
The weapon analysis tools examine several weapon performance characteristics that are captured within an integrated single-shot probability of kill (SSPK), which is computed over the entire battlespace in which an intercept is feasible (i.e. a pk curve as a function of time within the feasible intercept windows). The SSPK model is weapon specific, and allows each threat-shooter pair account for the individual weapon’s constraints and other requirements based on the predicted trajectories of threat and interceptor. It also provides confidence intervals that capture the uncertainties in the trajectories and threat models.
Defensive Breakdown Analysis
The defensive breakdown analysis identifies the conditions when a given defensive laydown will no longer be able to defend high-valued regions or targets. It specifically looks at how / when weapon resources will be depleted under a given threat scenario, and when sensor resources will be unable to view threats or provide sufficient resources to track existing threats and support planned engagements.